Max Jarman
The Arizona Republic
Jun. 25, 2004 12:00 AM
Gasoline prices across the state might be dropping, but for many Arizonans,
months of paying more than $2 per gallon have left an indelible mark.
They have produced behavioral changes that could linger after prices return to more reasonable levels, according to a recent Arizona Republic survey.
Take these examples: • Bob Mitchell, who lives in central Phoenix, has temporarily given up driving and is taking the bus.
• Handyman George Wheeler has shaved $300 off his $2,100 monthly fuel bill by scheduling his calls on a geographic, rather than first-come, basis. • Ellen Winters of Tempe and her mother, Cathy Lang, have begun carpooling to work. • Prescott resident Pat Acosta is driving much less and carpools whenever she can. She also is trying to get the city to invest in public transportation.
The poll indicated those changes are not unusual. Of the 600 adult Arizona
residents surveyed, 46 percent are driving less as a result of the high prices.
Twenty-eight percent said they have cut back on other purchases to pay for gasoline,
and 16 percent said the high gas prices prompted them to walk or ride a bicycle
more often.
AAA Arizona spokesman David Cowley called the survey results a nice surprise.
"We, frankly, expected people would allow the price to go a little higher before they would change their behavior," Cowley said.
If there is any benefit to the high prices, it is that people may be taking a more conservative approach to gasoline consumption, he said.
But the trick, according to Cowley, will be to continue to conserve as prices fall.
The federal Energy Information Administration predicts the average price of regular unleaded will fall to $1.82 per gallon in the second half of 2004 after reaching a record high of $2.05 on May 26.
The average gas price in the Phoenix area has dropped 16 cents, or 7.3 percent, since reaching an all-time high of $2.20 per gallon on May 26.
But Arizona prices have been running 10 to 15 cents above the national average, and Cowley said he would be surprised if they fell below $1.90 anytime soon.
He predicts that the rapid drop in prices seen in the past two weeks will slow and that they could inch up after the Fourth of July holiday.
"We're just getting into the peak summer driving period," he said
But Cowley notes that U.S. refineries are operating at 96 percent capacity to meet demand and that any glitch could send prices back up.
"There is no room for a refinery outage or a pipeline break," he
said.
Acosta plans to continue to conserve if prices fall and will work for more public
transportation in Prescott.
"People here don't seem to grasp the benefits of it," she said.
And Mitchell, who is living on Social Security disability payments, said he may sell his car and continue to use public transportation.
"This is a good sign Arizonans are beginning to see fuel as a finite resource and conserve it," Cowley said. "We think that is really healthy.