Timothy M. Phelps and Tom Brune
Newsday
May. 20, 2003 12:00 AM

WASHINGTON - Well-informed court observers say that there could be two Supreme Court resignations next month, Chief Justice William Rehnquist and Associate Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, bringing the greatest upheaval on the court in 32 years.

Rehnquist's resignation is considered likely, although not certain; O'Connor's is considered likely by some court insiders and less so by others.

The White House, however, is preparing for the possibility of two or three vacancies, because if Rehnquist is replaced by a sitting justice and O'Connor also goes, two seats but three positions will be open.

Yet another seat could open up if Justice John Paul Stevens, who is 83, retires, but that is considered unlikely.

While the speculation in Washington is that Justice Antonin Scalia would be elevated to chief justice, objections are being raised within the administration because of his age. Although Scalia is a youthful 67, some feel a younger person should become chief justice to ensure long-term impact.

For some of the highly ideological conservatives who have held sway over President Bush's court nominations, that person would be Justice Clarence Thomas, 54.

They say that despite his controversial background, the White House has not dismissed the idea.

With no change on the court in nearly a decade, the longest period without turnover in 180 years, the level of anticipation and preparation by groups on the left and the right is intense. Both sides expect a brutal battle, with the Republicans even threatening to force a legally questionable change in Senate procedure to prevent a Democratic filibuster. Although Rehnquist's retirement would not necessarily change the court's voting patterns if he is replaced with another conservative, O'Connor has been a swing vote whose replacement could make the court more predictably conservative.

It would probably take at least one more retirement to overturn the Roe vs. Wade abortion decision.

No matter what the lineup, Democrats and Republicans in Washington take it for granted that given the opportunity, Bush will nominate the first Hispanic to the Supreme Court.

The leading candidate is White House counsel Alberto Gonzales, 47, a longtime associate of the president from Texas who would probably garner support from otherwise liberal Hispanic groups.

But Gonzales, who was appointed by Bush to the Texas Supreme Court, is opposed by some who fear he will not be conservative enough.

Should there be another seat available, insiders suggest the inside track might go to 4th Circuit Court of Appeals Judge J. Michael Luttig, a committed movement conservative and former Justice Department lawyer who advised Thomas through his nomination battle.

Because confirmation battles are particularly intense in an election year, and Bush will not necessarily be re-elected, a loyal Republican such as Rehnquist, 79, and perhaps O'Connor, would probably choose this year to go.

Rehnquist, who has been on the court for 31 years, has at times in recent years expressed some frustrations with the job. O'Connor, who is 73 and became the first female justice in 1981, has in conversation with friends remained very enthusiastic about her work, leading some to think she has no intention of retiring.

But others point to her recent publication of a book on her career and the extensive interviews she is giving as a sign she is wrapping it up.

In addition, reporters have noticed her husband, John, who is said by friends to be eager to return home to Phoenix, has been coming to watch court sessions more frequently in recent months, as have other family and friends.

The last time there were two vacancies on the court in one year was 1972.

Find this article at:
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0520socotus-resign20.html