Friday, 20 September 2002
By Hipolito R. Corella
ARIZONA DAILY STAR
Arizona has sent only one Hispanic to Congress, but now four are in the running for Capitol Hill.
Two Hispanic Democrats are expected to be victorious in the general election - incumbent Rep. Ed Pastor in District 4 and Raúl Grijalva in District 7.
But Democrats are also eyeing the state's new District 1 and open District 2, counting on two Hispanic candidates there - George Cordova and Randy Camacho, respectively - to help the party take half of the state's eight House seats.
Martin Bacal, Democratic national committeeman, said the state's four Hispanic congressional hopefuls will ignite interest from Hispanic voters.
"I think that means more people will turn out to vote," Bacal said of Hispanic voters not used to seeing congressional candidates who look like them. "People will feel represented . . . people who feel left out of the equation."
Similarly, Grijalva, who was visiting Washington, D.C., this week, in part to search for campaign support from members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, says it can happen.
"Four is a possibility," said Grijalva, hoping to join Pastor on the 18-member caucus. "Three is probable."
But state Republican Chairman Bob Fannin counters that the Democrats' push for four congressional seats is closer to wishful thinking than reality.
Fannin said GOP unity will be a big factor in the party keeping control of the state's delegation.
He said a cross-state "unity tour" last weekend showed that GOP primary election rivals were quick to back candidates who moved on to the general election. That same kind of support is lacking among Democrats, he said.
In addition to the uniqueness of the potential Hispanic bloc, it's been a decade since Democrats and Republicans split the state's congressional seats.
In 1992, the state had just been increased to six seats, and the even split lasted only one term. The state gained two House seats because of population gains in the 2000 Census.
About 25 percent of the state is Hispanic, and an additional 20 percent of Arizonans describe themselves as belonging to a non-white, non-Hispanic ethnic group, according to the latest census data.
When congressional district boundaries were redrawn after the 1990 Census, membership in the Congressional Hispanic Caucus grew from 11 to 17. There are 435 House members.
Pastor is the only Hispanic Arizonans have elected to Congress in the state's history and is expected to make a return trip.
He'll face Republican Jonathan Barnert and Libertarian Amy Gibbons in November to represent a district that formerly included much of Tucson and Southern Arizona, including Nogales. It has been redrawn and now is confined to Maricopa County.
The other seat expected to go to a Hispanic candidate is District 7, which stretches from Tucson to Nogales to Yuma.
That's considered a sure thing by the Democrats because Grijalva won big in the primary election, and voter registration numbers are in his favor.
He faces Republican Ross Hieb, a former Yuma City Council member, and Libertarian John Nemeth in the general election.
But it's Districts 1 and 2 that have Democrats and Republicans readying for a big general election brawl.
Democrats are excited about those seats because neither has an incumbent.
District 1 is new, and District 2 became open with the unexpected retirement of Rep. Bob Stump.
Democrat Mary Judge Ryan, who is hoping to beat longtime incumbent Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe in congressional District 8, is considered a long shot.
Another Hispanic, Libertarian Joe Duarte, is also in the District 8 race. The state's other GOP incumbents - Jeff Flake, J.D. Hayworth and John Shadegg - are expected to win re-election.
In the District 1 race, money and other kinds of support are expected to come from the Republican National Committee.
Cordova, a businessman from Payson, faces Republican Rick Renzi, an insurance company owner from Flagstaff, and Libertarian Edwin Porr.
Democrats have an edge over Republicans in voter registration in District 1, which stretches across all or parts of Apache, Coconino, Graham, Navajo, Pinal and Yavapai counties.
But Democrats there have lagged behind Republicans in voter turnout.
Jim Pederson, state Demo-cratic Party chairman, said there will be a push to get voters to go to the polls and to cast early ballots in hopes of closing the gap. "I think this race will be won in October," Pederson said. "It's really a swing district."
Fannin, of the state GOP, said voter registration numbers in the district are misleading because they don't account for who goes to the polls. He said the GOP will counter the Dem-ocrats with its own effort to ignite voter interest in the race through phone banks, mailers and early voting promotions.
And the Republican National Committee is stepping in to help.
"It's one of the top-tier races this cycle," said Lea Anne McBride, a committee spokeswoman. "It's a district we're going to win."
Republicans have a 13-seat edge over Democrats in the House, 223-210, with one Independent and one seat vacant.
Along with money, visits from high-profile Republicans are expected. For example, the biggest name in the Republican Party - President Bush - will swing through District 1 next week, stopping for a fund-raiser in Flagstaff.
Cordova, 36, said issues, not ethnicity, will get him a victory in November. He said he knows the district and the issues important to residents better than Renzi, who moved back into the district last year after living nearly two decades in Virginia.
"I'm not making race an issue," Cordova said. "I'm a stronger advocate for business and economic development." Both Cordova and Renzi have spent plenty out of their own pockets to win the seat, about $250,000 for Cordova and more than $500,000 for Renzi.
In Northwest Arizona's District 2, Democrat Camacho, a political newcomer and high school teacher in Avondale, faces former state lawmaker Trent Franks in the general election.
The district covers all or parts of Coconino, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo and Yavapai counties.
Libertarian Edward Carlson also is on the general election ballot.
Camacho will have to overcome a Republican advantage in voter registration. Democrats are outnumbered by about 5-3. And in the primary election, nearly three times as many Republicans voted as Democrats.
Pederson said he is unfazed by the odds and expects Franks' "extreme politics" will help Camacho snag crossover votes and support from independents.
Fannin doesn't buy it. He said the conservative views championed by Franks will appeal to conservative Democrats in the district, making it impossible for the party to cut into the GOP's registration advantage.
Camacho, 42, said he can't explain how he came out on top in the primary.
"We were just able to get it done. I can't explain it," he said.
* Contact reporter Hipolito R. Corella at 573-4243 or corella@azstarnet.com.
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