April 1998
Page(s) : 1-4
Commerce Department (DOC)
Census Bureau
SuDoc Number : C 3.186:P-25-1132
PROJECTIONS OF THE VOTING-AGE POPULATION FOR STATES: NOVEMBER 1998
by Jennifer C. Day
THE VOTING-AGE POPULATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, MOSTLY IN THE WEST.
According to Census Bureau projections, 200.9 million United States residents will be old enough to vote in the November 1998 election, 4 million more than in November 1996 (Table A). The South is projected to have the greatest number of voting-age residents (71 million), making up 35 percent of the total electorate. The remaining population is distributed almost evenly among the Midwest, West, and Northeast (23 percent, 22 percent, and 19 percent, respectively). However, the West is projected to have the highest proportional increase since the last election in November 1996. In particular, the western Mountain states are expected to increase their voting-age population by over 5 percent, led by Nevada (9 percent increase), Arizona (7 percent increase), and Utah (6 percent increase).
THE U.S. VOTING-AGE POPULATION IS PROJECTED TO BE OLDER.
By November 1998, the number of 18 to 24 year olds is expected to increase to 25 million (13 percent of the voting-age population) (Figure 1). Compared with the 1996 population, this group is projected to reverse its decline since 1981 in population size and increase by almost 2 percent. At the same time, the largest percentage of the voting-age population (40 percent or 83 million people) will be 25-to-44 years old. This group is projected to decrease slowly in size by less than 1 percent between 1996 and 1998, as the Baby-Boom cohort, currently ages 34 to 52, moves into the next age group.
Most of the increase in the voting-age population since 1996 will be concentrated in the 45-to-64 year old age group (a 7 percent increase). In fact, since 1990, about three-quarters of the growth in the voting-age population has occurred in the 45-to-64 age group, also related to the aging of the Baby Boom. By November 1998, this group is projected to include 58 million people or almost 30 percent of the voting-age population.
The size of the 65 and over population, who usually have high rates of voter participation, is expected to remain nearly the same as in 1996, at 34 million (17 percent of the voting-age population, about a 1 percent increase since the last election).
UTAH WILL HAVE THE YOUNGEST VOTER POPULATION; FLORIDA, THE OLDEST.
At the time of the November 1998 election, more than 1 in 5 people of voting age will be less than 25 years old in Utah (22 percent), a state which historically has had very high birth rates and thus a younger than average overall population. Other states with a high proportion of young voters are: Alaska (17 percent), Idaho and Wyoming (both at 16 percent), and Louisiana and Mississippi (both at 15 percent). Alaska will have proportionately more of its voting-age population under age 45 (60 percent) than any other state.
Florida will be the only state with almost one-fourth of its voting-age population age 65 and over. In fact, more than one-half (52 percent) of its voting-age population will be age 45 and older. Pennsylvania and Rhode Island also are projected to have at least one-fifth of their voting-age populations age 65 and over.
THE MAJORITY OF THE VOTING-AGE POPULATION WILL BE WOMEN.
Women are projected to represent 52 percent of the voting-age population, outnumbering men by 7 million. They will exceed the number of men in all voting age groups except for ages 18-to-24, where the number of men will be 689,000 greater than women. Women will represent 59 percent of the population 65 years old and over. They will outnumber men in every state except Alaska (47 percent women) and Nevada (49 percent women). Women will outnumber men by the largest margin in New York (751,000). Pennsylvania will also have more than 500,000 more women than men in the voting-age population. The District of Columbia and Mississippi will have the highest proportions of women in the voting-age population (54 percent and 53 percent, respectively).
AMONG THE VOTING-AGE POPULATION, WHITES WILL COMPRISE 84 PERCENT, BLACKS 12 PERCENT, AND OTHER RACES 5 PERCENT. HISPANICS ARE PROJECTED TO CONSTITUTE 10 PERCENT.
By November 1998, the voting-age population will be comprised of 168 million Whites, 24 million Blacks, and about another 9 million people of other races. Hispanics (who may be of any race) will make up almost 20 million of this number. However, the voting strengths of the Hispanic and other populations are likely to be greatly reduced since about 40 percent of Hispanics and 35 percent of those who are of races other than White or Black are not U.S. citizens, as measured in the March 1997 Current Population Survey.
Most of the increase since November 1996 in the voting-age population is projected to occur in the Black, other, and Hispanic groups, which are projected to grow at 3 percent, 6 percent, and 7 percent, respectively.
The District of Columbia will have a higher proportion of Blacks in its voting-age population (57 percent) than any state. At least 1 out of every 5 people of voting-age will be Black in Mississippi (33 percent), Louisiana (30 percent), South Carolina (28 percent), Georgia (27 percent), Maryland (27 percent), Alabama (24 percent), and North Carolina (21 percent).
The voting-age population of other races will be concentrated in the West, particularly in Hawaii (62 percent--mainly Asian or Pacific Islander), Alaska (17 percent--mainly American Indian, Eskimo, or Aleut), California (13 percent--mainly Asian or Pacific Islander), and New Mexico (9 percent--mainly American Indian, Eskimo, or Aleut). Other states in which more than 5 percent of their voting-age populations will be of other races are: Arizona, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Washington.
The Hispanic voting-age population will be concentrated in the southern and western parts of the United States with New Mexico projected to have 37 percent of its voting-age population Hispanic. Hispanics will constitute about one-quarter of the voting-age population in California and Texas (28 percent and 27 percent respectively). Other states who will have more than 10 percent of their voting-age population made up of Hispanics will be Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Jersey, and New York.
The Hispanic electorate will be younger than either the Black or White voting-age population in the November 1998 election. People under age 25 will make up 19 percent of the Hispanic electorate compared with 12 percent for Whites and 16 percent for Blacks.
PAST VOTING-AGE POPULATION TRENDS
In the past two decades, the voting-age population has shown a large increase. In 1972, the first year people ages 18 to 20 were eligible to vote in all states, the voting-age population numbered 140.8 million. The 1998 voting-age population projection of 200.9 million represents a 43 percent increase.
The largest single biennial increase in the voting-age population occurred between 1970 and 1972 with the ratification of the 22nd Constitutional Amendment which lowered the legal voting age from 21 in most states to 18 in all states. Of the 16 million increase in the voting-age population between these two years, the 22nd Amendment was responsible for adding 11 million people to the voting-age population--population growth added the remaining 5 million.
Another major factor accounting for the increase in the size of the voting-age population between the 1970s and 1990s was the large number of births that occurred during the Baby Boom years of the mid-1950s to the early 1960s (over 4 million births per year). However, since 1982 when the smaller cohorts born after the Baby Boom began to reach age 18, the growth in the voting-age population has slowed from about 4 percent biennial growth in the 1970s, to around 3 percent in the early 1980s, to about 2 percent in recent years.
VOTER TURNOUT
Highest voter turnout traditionally occurs in the West North Central States and New England. Maine had the highest voter turnout of any state, with 64 percent of the population 18 years and over voting for a U.S. Representative in the 1996 election. Minnesota and Montana followed closely with 63 percent and 62 percent voter turnout. Other states with over 60 percent turnout were South Dakota and Wyoming. In the November 1994 congressional election, South Dakota had the highest voter turnout rate, with 59 percent of the electorate voting.
The lowest voter turnout for U.S. Representative in the November 1996 election was in Louisiana (15 percent). This may be explained partially by the fact that, in Louisiana, congressional seats are determined by open primaries held earlier in the year. Only in the case where no single candidate receives a majority of the votes is a run-off election held in November between the top two finishers. Overall, the South consistently has the lowest voter turnout, but the gap between the South and the remainder of the United States is not nearly as great now as it was before the Voting Rights Act of the 1960s.(1)
Nationwide, voter turnout for the election of the House of Representatives in November 1994 was 36 percent, considerably less than that recorded for the presidential election of 1996, when 46 percent cast a ballot. Historically, voter turnout for the House of Representatives has been higher during presidential elections years than in "off years" (i.e., when there is not a presidential election as well). Declines in voter turnout in non-presidential years have been noted since the mid-1960s when about 45 percent of the electorate voted for U.S. Representatives. Voter turnout in non-presidential years fell to a post-World War II low of 33 percent in 1990.
SOURCE OF DATA
The voting-age population projections were constructed using the latest statistics available in January 1998 and were based on three main data sources from the Bureau of the Census: 1) state total population estimates through July 1997; 2) state population estimates by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin through July 1996; and 3) national population estimates by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin through July 1997. The November 3, 1998 projections were created by applying the 1996/1995 ratios for each age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, to the July 1, 1996 estimate and carrying the change forward through November 1998. For the 1996 and 1997 dates, the sum of the state totals was then prorated to be consistent with the national total estimates. A more detailed description of the methodology is available on the Census Bureau's World-Wide Web site (http://www.census.gov). Because these projections are based on recent estimates, these data are not consistent with previously published population projections for the nation or states.
MORE INFORMATION
Detailed information on the characteristics of voters is collected in the November Current Population Survey every other year for the civilian non-institutionalized population as corrected for the 1990 net undercount and reported in the P20 series of the Current Population Reports, "Voting and Registration in the Election of November." In the year following an election, the Census Bureau releases official July 1 estimates of the voting-age population (to be released in 1999 for July 1998) to the Federal Election Commission. All of these data will be available on the Internet, at the Census Bureau's World-Wide Web site (http://www.census.gov). Once on the site, click on "Subjects A-Z," then on "Voting."
CONTACTS
For additional information on these voting projections, contact Jennifer C. Day, Education and Social Stratification Branch, on 301-457-2464 or via Internet E-mail (jday@census.gov). For specific questions regarding the methodology of these projections, contact Laura Heaton, Population Projections Branch, on 301-457-2428 or via Internet E-mail (Laura.M.Heaton@ccmail.census.gov).
USER COMMENTS
The Census Bureau welcomes the comments and advice of data and report users. If you have any suggestions or comments, please write to:
Chief, Population Division
U.S. Bureau of the Census
Washington, DC 20233 or send
E-mail to: pop@census.gov
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THE VOTING-AGE POPULATION DEFINED:
The voting-age population includes all U.S. residents 18 years and over. This consists of both people who are eligible to vote and those not eligible to vote, such as noncitizens, convicted felons, and prison inmates. These projections do not cover Americans living overseas who may vote. The proportion of the voting-age population who reported in the November 1996 Current Population Survey that they were registered to vote in that year's election was 65.9 percent.
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FIGURE 1. PROJECTED VOTING-AGE POPULATION: NOVEMBER 1998
(In percent)
AGE
18 to 24 years: 12.6
25 to 44 years: 41.4
45 to 64 years: 28.9
65 and over: 17.1
GENDER
Male: 48.2
Female: 51.8
RACE
White: 83.7
Black: 11.8
Other: 4.5
HISPANIC ORIGIN*
Hispanic: 9.9
Not Hispanic: 91.1
*Hispanics may be of any race.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.
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NOTE
1. Casper, Lynne M. and Loretta E. Bass, "Voting and Registration in the Election of November, 1996," U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, P20-504, 1998.